Spot Silicon Metal Stalemate, Polysilicon Focuses on Transaction Finalization [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

SMM Dec. 18: Silicon Metal: Spot silicon metal prices were basically stable this week. As of Dec. 18, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW; #421 silicon (used in silicone) was at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt, flat WoW; and #3303 silicon was at 10,200-10,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded SI contract closed at 8,645 yuan/mt on Dec. 18, up 360 yuan/mt WoW. Futures prices fluctuated upward this week, but some silicon enterprises' willingness to sell remained weak. Downstream users mainly digested low-priced inventories, and trading volume turned lower WoW. On the supply side, some silicon enterprises in the north intended to cut production, but no cuts have been implemented yet, and the operating rate remained stable. Follow-up changes in operating rates need attention.

On the demand side, polysilicon weekly production was basically stable. Polysilicon production in December is scheduled at around 114,000 mt, down slightly MoM from November, resulting in limited change in demand for silicon metal. The weekly production schedule for silicone saw minor fluctuations WoW. In early December, monomer plants successively reduced production, and the schedule decreased MoM from November. Consumption of silicon metal in December may decrease by around 5,000 mt. The operating rate of aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. Secondary aluminum enterprises in Chongqing, which cut production last week due to air pollution, maintained reduced output this week. Downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed marginal weakening, and the operating rate is expected to be generally stable with a slight fall.

Silicon metal futures prices saw an upward correction this week, but still fell short of enterprise expectations, leading to weak selling willingness. Downstream digestion of inventories and a strong wait-and-see sentiment kept the spot market in a stalemate recently, with prices under pressure both up and down.

Polysilicon: The polysilicon price index was 52.09 yuan/kg this week. N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 49.8-55 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon at 49-51 yuan/kg. Market trading was extremely limited this week. Several polysilicon plants planned to significantly increase polysilicon prices, with some market rumors of new quotes at 65 yuan/kg. However, it is important to note that no actual transactions have been concluded yet. The market mainly executed historical orders, with the current mainstream shipment price center for historical orders at 51-53 yuan/kg. Future market prices will depend on downstream price trends and actual transaction settlements.

Wafer: Overall wafer prices held steady this week. N-type 183 wafers were priced at 1.15-1.2 yuan/piece, 210R wafers at 1.20-1.25 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafers at 1.45-1.5 yuan/piece. Driven by rising battery prices, wafer prices showed an upward trend this week, with the top two enterprises suspending shipments of low-priced orders. The actual transaction situation still depends on downstream acceptance. Additionally, after the association announced the 2026 quota, it is highly likely that wafer enterprises will face higher inventory pressure in the medium and long term, while ensuring reasonable production profits.

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